Prospective Directions of Low-Carbon Development Policy in CIS Member States
SDG 13
19 November, 10:00-13:00
Academic Council Hall
Session
Signing the Kyoto Protocol (1997) and the Paris Agreement (2015) marked a transition towards a low-carbon world. Today, low-carbon development in the CIS member states is a key element of national strategies on the way to sustainable development and the fight against climate change. Various initiatives and projects are currently being actively developed to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and transition to lower-carbon technologies in various economic sectors, which is expected to result in increasing resource efficiency.
It is worth noting that the low-carbon development policy is becoming an important tool for ensuring Commonwealth countries’ technological sovereignty and economic security amid global climate change and the transition to sustainable economy. Initially, many issues related to the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions and increasing their absorption require transboundary solutions. In this context, cooperation in creating green infrastructure, transferring green technologies and developing common standards for climate projects, among many other areas, holds considerable promise.
Currently, only 4 countries in the region have set a goal of the transition to carbon neutrality. Moreover, two of these countries, Armenia and Kyrgyzstan, plan to achieve this by 2050, while Kazakhstan and Russia plan to do so by 2060. The remaining Commonwealth countries have not yet adopted national commitments to achieve zero emissions.
If each country’s current policies to reduce greenhouse gas emissions are implemented, this will lay the foundation for a carbon-neutral future for the entire region and provide a clear roadmap for achieving sustainable low-emission growth. However, all this will be impossible to achieve without market-based methods of carbon regulation, including for the purpose of attracting funds for the decarbonising the economies of the Commonwealth countries.
The purpose of the session is to exchange views on forming s development policies as an important tool for ensuring the technological sovereignty and economic security of the Commonwealth countries amid global climate change and the transition to sustainable forms of economy.
Figures and Facts
Despite measures to reduce greenhouse gases, the volume of carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions in the CIS countries has remained stable. The data from 2019 to 2023 do not show a significant decrease. Significant warming has been recorded throughout the CIS over the past decade. The fastest warming is in Belarus (0.63 °C per decade) and Moldova (0.6 °C per decade). In Russia, it has warmed by 0.51 °C over ten years, while in Armenia, it has warmed by 0.4 °C, in Kazakhstan — by 0.32 °C, in Kyrgyzstan — by 0.22 °C, in Tajikistan — by 0.16 °C, in Turkmenistan — by 0.36 °C, and in Uzbekistan — by 0.32 °C. According to calculations by the VEB Institute of Russia, CO2 emissions will decrease to 1,825 million tons of CO2 in the inertial scenario or to 1,428 million tons of CO2 in the optimistic scenario by 2050. This will enable Russia to meet the target of 1,830 million tons of CO2 for greenhouse gas emissions provided for by the Strategy for the Socioeconomic Development of the Russian Federation with a low level of greenhouse by 2050 (hereinafter referred to as the Strategy). It should be noted that the Strategy’s target indicator of net emissions of 630 million tons of CO2, taking into account the absorption capacity of forests, can only be achieved by applying decarbonisation measures, since according to calculations by the VEB Institute, the volume of net CO2 emissions will amount to 1,255 million tons of CO2 in the absence of any measures by 2050.
Azerbaijan aims to reduce its greenhouse gas emissions by 35% from the 1990 baseline by 2030 and by 40% by 2050.
In 2021, Armenia announced its climate commitments, which include a 40% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions by 2030. A long-term low-emission development strategy (LT-LEDS) has been developed. It is designed to lead the country to carbon neutrality. The climate ambitions are largely related to the transition to carbon-neutral energy. By 2030, it is expected to achieve a 15% share of solar energy in total energy production. The fulfilment of climate commitments should be achieved through the long-term and sustainable use of nuclear energy as a source of carbon-neutral energy.
Belarus, with a population of around 9.5 million people (2019), accounts for a relatively small percentage, 0.18%, of total global greenhouse gas emissions. The carbon intensity of the economy decreased almost fourfold between 1995 and 2012: the average annual GDP growth was 7.9 per cent in 1995–2012, while the average annual greenhouse gas emission growth was 0.4 per cent over the same period. This is a significant achievement on the way to low-carbon development in Europe. According to the draft Long-Term Development Strategy of the Republic of Belarus with Low Greenhouse Gas Emissions until 2050, the largest amount of greenhouse gases is emitted by two sectors of the economy: Energy (including any fuel combustion) accounts for 62.0% of total national emissions, while Agriculture accounts for 24.5%. The Waste sector accounts for 6.9% and Industrial Processes and Product Use accounts for 6.7% of emissions. The Land Use, Land-Use Change and Forestry (LULUCF) sector has negative net emissions, mainly resulting from carbon accumulation due to biomass growth.
Following the publication of the updated Environmental Code of the Republic of Kazakhstan in 2021, the country’s government approved the Strategy for Achieving Carbon Neutrality of the Republic until 2060 in 2023 and updated the Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC). This determined the future development vector for the country’s industry and economy. The medium-term goal is to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 15% by the end of 2030 relative to the 1990 baseline emissions level, while the long-term goal is to achieve carbon neutrality by 2060. Currently, the only instrument of state control and reduction of greenhouse gas emissions is the Kazakhstan Emissions Trading System (KazETS). It covers 6 main sectors of the economy: electric power, oil and gas, mining, metallurgy, chemical and manufacturing industries. The total limit of the KazETS is 161.1 million CO2 equivalents, i.e., 47% of the country’s total emissions.
In Kyrgyzstan, the volume of greenhouse gas emissions is insignificant - about 16.1 million tons of CO2 equivalent excluding removals from land use, land-use change and forestry (LULCF), which make up 0.03% of the total, thereby ranking 137th in the world for this indicator. Despite this, the country continues to actively work to fulfil its international commitments to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. For example, in October 2021, the country submitted a revised NDC, which provides for a reduction in emissions by 36.61% by 2025 and by 43.62% by 2030 in accordance with current development trends. Given that more than 90% of the country's territory is mountainous, Kyrgyzstan's climate policy is closely linked to the tasks of preserving mountain ecosystems and adapting the population of high-altitude regions to the effects of climate change. Kyrgyzstan plans to achieve such results by constructing renewable energy sources, increasing energy efficiency, introducing sustainable transport, providing alternatives to reduce use, and improving the quality of the coal used. However, carbon regulation instruments such as an emissions trading system and / or a carbon tax have not been introduced in the country yet.
Creating a carbon market in Tajikistan could be a significant step towards sustainable development and attracting international investment. However, the country will have to overcome serious challenges to achieve this, ranging from a lack of infrastructure and specialists to the absence of a regulatory framework and emission monitoring systems. According to experts, success depends on a clear government strategy, the development of quotas for large enterprises and cooperation with international partners. The carbon market in Tajikistan risks remaining an unrealised opportunity without these steps..
As part of its contribution to the efforts within the framework of the Global Methane Commitment, Turkmenistan will propose developing a comprehensive strategy to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 2030 under the auspices of the UN. The country will also put forward proposals to establish a Caspian Environmental Initiative and a UN Council on water resource management in Central Asian countries with headquarters in Ashgabat..
In the Republic of Uzbekistan, the total volume of greenhouse gas emissions is 187.5 million CO2 equivalents, while the energy sector accounts for 76-80% of the country’s greenhouse gas emissions, including 50% from the combustion of fossil fuels and 26-30% from methane leaks in the coal, oil and gas industries. Over the past 10 years, emissions from the energy sector have been decreasing, while greenhouse gas emissions in agriculture, on the contrary, have increased due to an increase in livestock numbers and they account for 18% of the total. Industrial processes account for 5% of total emissions. Considering that in 2021 Uzbekistan increased its commitments in the NDC and intends to reduce specific greenhouse gas emissions per unit of GDP by 35% by 2030 from the 2010 level instead of 10% provided for in the NDC1, the country remains one of the most energy- and resource-intensive in the world. Under the current resource-intensive economic model, the expected rapid population and economic growth will lead to significant emissions increases, creating undue pressure on key resources and ecosystems.
Discussion Issues
Low-carbon development policy as a factor in ensuring technological sovereignty and economic security of the CIS member states.
Increasing the efficiency of the emissions trading system and supporting the expansion of the carbon pricing system to facilitate achieving carbon neutrality by the CIS member states by 2060.
Assisting in developing a unified approach to organising a carbon accounting system within the territory of the CIS member states.
Creating a system to promote advanced training for specialists, including organising internships.
Exchanging experience between interested persons / organisations in the CIS member states.
Assisting in the formation of a unified register of the best low-carbon technologies (knowledge base) successfully applied by the CIS member states.
Programme
Welcoming Address of the Session Moderators
Elena Savenkova (Russia)
Director, Institute of Environmental Engineering; Head of the Greenhouse Gas Validation and Verification Authority, RUDN University
Aliya Maulyesheva
Country Manager for Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan within the framework of the UN Global Compact
Anatoly Kazakov (Russia)
Chair of the Coordinating Council of the Association "Business Center for Economic Development of the CIS
Mikhail Myskin
Director of the Department of Economic Cooperation of the CIS Executive Committee
Topic of the report
On the Joint Implementation of the Green Agenda by the Russian Federation and the Commonwealth Countries Within the Framework of Global and Regional Initiatives
Ivan Kushch (Russia)
Director of the Department of International Cooperation and Climate Change of the Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment of Russia
Topic of the report
On the Development of a New Culture of Carbon Management, New Competencies and Technologies to Achieve Environmental Well-Being for the Populations of the Commonwealth Countries
Denis Sukhetskiy (Russia)
General Director, National Institute of Accreditation of RusAccreditation (Federal Autonomous Institution “National Institute of Accreditation”)
Topic of the report
Scenario of Climate Change Impacts in Turkmenistan
Berkeli Atayev (Turkmenistan)
member of the Governing Board of the Regional Environmental Centre for Central Asia, member of the Board of the Public Association ‘Nature Conservation Society of Turkmenistan’
Topic of the report
On creating a stable environment and promoting the transition to a carbon-neutral economy (using the Republic of Armenia as an example)
Eduard Arakelian (Armenia)
Head of Sales and Corporate Client Relationship Management at Ameriabank (under approval)
Topic of the report
On the Potential of Science and Higher Education to Achieve Carbon Neutrality Goals in CIS Member States (Using the Kyrgyz Republic as an Example)
Nursulu Akhmetova (Kyrgyzstan)
Director General of the FORSIGHT Comprehensive Research Fund, Chair of the Risk Management Committee of O!Bank Open Joint Stock Company
Topic of the report
On the Tasks of the University Community of the Commonwealth Countries in Shaping Students' Environmental Awareness and Creating a System for Training Personnel to Implement Low-Carbon Technologies for the Sustainable Technological and Socio-Economic Development of CIS Member States
Oleg Rodkin (Belarus)
Director, International Sakharov State Environmental Institute, Belarusian State University; Chairman, Public Council of the Basic Organization of the CIS Member States on Environmental Education
For winners of the competition «Countries of the World: Partnership for Sustainable Development” – 2025
